Russia-Ukraine conflict: food products under strain
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is putting a strain on our food resources: some are produced directly in these two countries, others produced elsewhere depend on them in their method of production. Grains and oilseeds are the most affected productions. Most of the existing grain stocks are trapped in the exporting country, as in Ukraine [1]. This results in a decrease in the quantity of grains and oilseeds sold on the global market, including the European market.
As for future productions, they are strongly compromised [2,3]:
- In the short term because of the lack of crop care (sowing, soil amendment, plant protection and harvesting),
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In the long term because of the loss of fertility of the bombed land on the one hand, the destruction of storage infrastructures on the other, and finally because of the expected increase in the cost of energy (machinery and fertilisation). As a consequence of these threats to the grain and oilseed production in Eastern Europe, the adulteration and shortage of these products, as well as a shortage of the products which depend on them are to be expected.
Grains and oilseeds: increasing risks of adulteration and contamination [4]
There is an increased risk of wheat flour being supplemented with high-protein flours, such as legume flours for instance, to compensate for the poor quality and scarcity of grains. The same phenomenon is expected for processed legume-based products, with possible dilutions and the introduction of an allergen risk.
For maize, because of expected low yields, it is likely that grains originally intended for animal feed will be used for human consumption. The risk of contamination, with mycotoxins in particular, will increase accordingly.
Finally, sunflower oil, 80% of which is produced in the Ukraine and Russia, could be diluted with other vegetable oils which are cheaper and less scarce.
Other products dependent on grains and oilseeds: shortage, price increase and fraud
Starting with Bread [5] and milled products, the shortage of cereals is already driving up the price of end-products in some countries [6]. This situation is likely to continue in view of the forecast for the next harvest. The same phenomenon will be observed for alcoholic beverages made from grain such as beer, gin or vodka.
Ukraine produced 68,000T of honey [7] in 2020. Such a volume is unattainable without the usual rapeseed and sunflower crops, especially as the harvest is compromised this year.
Meat, milk and other livestock products [8] are also likely to experience a price increase due to the shortage of raw materials for animal feed.
In addition, Russia is a major exporter of fish [4], mainly Alaskan pollock, Atlantic cod and haddock. The disruption of supply channels could lead in the short-term to an increase in the price of these commodities and in the long term to a falsification of the geographical origin of Russian fish, claiming it comes instead from neighbouring countries who can trade more easily than Russia with the rest of the world.
Finally, Russian sugar [9,10] will become increasingly scarce on world markets due to the current embargo on the country. And even if Russian products do reach the end consumer, the chances of sales are getting smaller by the day due to the consumer boycott of these products [11].
As a result of these major tensions on the world food market, product adulteration is to be expected: fraud in geographical origin, dilution, non-compliance with recipes, etc. So please remain vigilant about the quality of your ingredients and goods to preserve your own productions, to protect your brands and to ensure the safety of your customers while maintaining their trust!
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Sources
1. Baudart, C. B. (2022, 7 mars). VIDEO - Guerre Russie-Ukraine : « un enjeu de sécurité alimentaire considérable ». Réussir Grandes Cultures : le média des céréaliers. URL: https://www.reussir.fr/grandes-cultures/guerre-russie-ukraine-un-enjeu-de-securite-alimentaire-considerable
2. Joshua Minchin, J. M. (2022, 14 mars). Will the invasion of Ukraine spark a global food insecurity crisis? New Food Magazine. URL: https://www.newfoodmagazine.com/article/162731/will-the-invasion-of-ukraine-spark-a-global-food-insecurity-crisis/
3. Le Monde. (2022, 11 mars). Guerre en Ukraine : « L’augmentation des prix de l’énergie devrait plus correspondre à celle des deux conflits entre les Etats-Unis et l’Irak qu’aux deux premiers chocs pétroliers ». Le Monde.fr. URL: https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2022/03/11/guerre-en-ukraine-l-augmentation-des-prix-de-l-energie-devrait-plus-correspondre-a-celle-des-deux-conflits-entre-les-etats-unis-et-l-irak-qu-aux-deux-premiers-chocs-petroliers_6117099_3232.html
4. Alison Johnson, A. J. (2022, 28 mars). Food fraud and the Ukraine war. Foodmanufacture.Co.Uk. URL: https://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2022/03/28/Food-fraud-and-the-Ukraine-war
5. Maryline DUMAS, M. D. (2022, 9 mars). Guerre en Ukraine : oui, la baguette de pain pourrait bientôt coûter 1,20€. France 3 Bourgogne-Franche-Comté. URL: https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/bourgogne-franche-comte/yonne/guerre-en-ukraine-oui-la-baguette-de-pain-pourrait-bientot-couter-1-20-2489512.html
6. Marie De Vergès, M. V. (2022, 22 mars). L’Afrique paie déjà le prix de la guerre en Ukraine. Le Monde.fr. URL: https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2022/03/22/l-afrique-paie-deja-le-prix-de-la-guerre-en-ukraine_6118608_3212.html
7. Marie-Pierre Olphand, M. P. O. (2022, 22 mars). Miel d’Ukraine : l’Europe va devoir apprendre à vivre sans. rfi. URL: https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/chronique-des-mati%C3%A8res-premi%C3%A8res/20220322-miel-d-ukraine-l-europe-va-devoir-apprendre-%C3%A0-vivre-sans
8. P.L. (2022, 7 mars). L’Ukraine introduit des quotas d’exportation de certains produits agricoles. BFM BUSINESS. URL: https://www.bfmtv.com/economie/international/l-ukraine-introduit-des-quotas-d-exportation-de-certains-produits-agricoles_AD-202203070297.html
9. V.C. (2022, 1 mars). Crise Ukraine-Russie : le marché du sucre progresse dans le sillage de la flambée du pétrole. Les Marchés. URL: https://www.reussir.fr/lesmarches/la-crise-ukraine-russie-dope-le-marche-du-sucre-dans-le-sillage-du-petrole
10. Christopher Gaudoin, C. G. (2018, 9 novembre). La politique sucrière en Russie : une stratégie de substitution aux importations. Agriculture Stratégies. URL: https://www.agriculture-strategies.eu/2018/11/la-politique-sucriere-en-russie
11. Neïla Beyler, N. B. (2022, 1 mars). Guerre en Ukraine : le boycott de la vodka russe gagne du terrain. Les Echos. URL: https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/conso-distribution/guerre-en-ukraine-le-boycott-de-la-vodka-russe-gagne-du-terrain-1390447
